Housing Bubble - Real Estate Bubble
Housing BubbleHousing BubbleThe Housing Bubble or The Bogeyman Under the Bed
May 11 , 2005 by Steve Mullis
Recently there has been much discussion and speculation about a phrase that sends shivers down the spines of realtors and homeowners alike...”The Housing Bubble”.
Having looked at data from a variety of sources and attending a presentation for top named economists, the future of Arizona housing is clearing up nicely.
Developments that can affect the housing market are many...interest rates, employment, population increases or decreases, consumer confidence, the “Housing Affordability Index” the livability index, population age, etc.
Real Estate BubbleReal Estate BubbleThe Housing Bubble Revisited
Contributed by Bob McCord, CEO of the Success Financial Network
It's difficult not to write about the "housing bubble" given the media's continued effort to make it happen. There is no question that the pace of sales has to slow and that double-digit price increases can't continue. But that doesn't make a bubble.
Housing analysts say price 'frenzy' cannot continueHousing analysts say price 'frenzy' cannot continue
Glen Creno and Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 11, 2005 12:00 AM
The party isn't over yet for metropolitan Phoenix's housing market, but analysts say it may be winding down.
Existing homes continued to command premiums in May when the median price hit $235,000, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University. That's a 6.3 percent jump from the April figure, the type of move that took a year to achieve in the late 1990s.
"Deep down, everybody knows you can't sustain this pace," said Jay Butler, director of the Real Estate Center. advertisement
Real Estate BubbleDriving the market: a strong economy, new jobs, low mortgage rates and investors lured by big gains in home prices. Butler says the Phoenix housing market is in a price bubble, and other analysts are reaching similar conclusions.
A bubble is a rapid run-up in home prices that the market cannot sustain, so housing prices ultimately fall. If prices do fall here, it could put pressure on all home values and spark some homeowners as well as investors to sell. That, in turn, could drive prices down even more.
University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest said outsize price gains should begin to moderate by the end of the summer. He said housing statewide shows "a lot of characteristics" of a bubble.
"Demand far outstrips supply, and the demand side appears to be driven by a frenzy of sorts, by greed," he said. "The frenzy is going to evaporate, and the market will begin to return somewhat to normal. It's not that prices will fall. The rate of the increase will moderate."
State gains revenue windfall from hot real estate marketState gains revenue windfall from hot real estate market
$1 billion in April tax collections sets record, provides millions in surplus funds
Robbie Sherwood
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 8, 2005 12:00 AM
Arizona's tax revenues have surged to record levels, thanks largely to profits from hot housing and real estate markets that are powering one of the most robust economies in the nation.
State tax collections for April topped $1 billion for the first time ever, the largest single monthly take in Arizona history and a 34 percent jump over April last year.
That gave the state an April windfall of $160 million to $300 million, the latest in a series of monthly increases that have added hundreds of millions of dollars to the state's coffers this year.
Economist Elliott Pollack warned Tuesday that the real-estate-fueled bubble could deflate, if not burst, within two years just as the dot-com boom did before the 2001 recession. Tanking stocks along with the terrorist attacks triggered an overnight 40 percent revenue drop and $1 billion shortfalls that leveled off only this year.
Housing BubbleLook what's bubbling in Phoenix's economyLook what's bubbling in Phoenix's economy
May. 26, 2005 12:00 AM
Few in our great real estate casino want to talk publicly about a housing bubble. This is classic bubble behavior.
It was on display most recently in the tech bubble of the late 1990s. Some are deluded, experts being particularly prone to the malady. Back then it was the "long boom" theory; now it's "people will always want to move to Arizona" and other fables. Others know they have a tiger by the tail, and don't know how to let go without getting killed. And for now, these players are getting stunningly rich.
Everyone, it seems, is trying to get into the game. This is also classic bubble behavior. From the capital markets to the cubicle prole who has bought a couple of investment houses in Eloy, bad money follows good past the market peak. In the tech boom, we watched spectacular IPOs for companies with no profits and products no one understood. People who didn't even own a computer were putting their life savings into dot-coms with impossible price-to-earnings ratios.
Don't Buy Housing Bubble PropagandaDon't Buy Housing Bubble Propaganda
Thursday May 26, 2:04 pm ET
By Barry Ritholtz, RealMoney.com Contributor
The old saw is true: Every general fights the previous battle. And after missing the tech and telecom bubbles, the generals of the financial media are now battling more bubbles than we can count:
There are bubbles in debt, credit and interest rates. There is the oil bubble, the import bubble, the China bubble and the current account deficit bubble. In short, we have a veritable bubble in bubbles. Indeed, it is astonishing how many people who failed to either acknowledge the tech bubble in the 90s -- or at least failed to act on it -- now have no hesitation to declare real estate to be a bubble. This despite their lack of expertise or past track record in spotting bubbles on a timely fashion.
The bubble du jour though is the housing bubble. From Greenspan's testimony to CNBC's Housing special to (uh-oh) this month's Fortune magazine cover, it seems to be all anyone wants to talk about.
My position is that housing is not in a bubble -- yet. But it is an increasingly extended asset class that may be subject to a significant correction in the future. But a 25%-35% retracement is a very different situation than a bubble (recall that the Nasdaq dropped 80%), primarily because there are very different consequences for both homeowners and investors.
Not Your Grandson's Bubble
That said, comparing real estate with other true bubbles -- most especially the tech/telecom/dotcom bubble of the 1990s -- is imperfect, due to several factors.
Homes are illiquid assets that take several months to sell; stock can be liquidated instantly.
The housing market is regional, with an uneven distribution of asset appreciation: Equities are national, and even global.
Lastly, there is an intrinsic value of a house as a place where you can live; Compare this with a company whose only asset was a sock puppet -- the tulip bulb of its day -- and it's clear why a profitless, assetless, publicly traded company can go to zero. Barring an external disaster like Love Canal, houses will not.
Flow MeterGatlinburg CabinsSMSFireplace MantelsSell HomeVending MachinesHousing Bubble Real Estate Bubble
